Case Surveillance Update | 2020.07.09

Trends in short

  • COVID-19 cases in the US continue to rise which has led to some states delaying their reopenings and others to close again.
  • Despite a decrease in cases in Connecticut, public health officials are proceeding with extreme caution and have delayed Phase 3 of reopening (more details appear later in the report). 
  • Rhode Island has slowed its initial plans for Phase 3 of reopening but has moved forward with its reopening plans (more details appear later in the report).

International case numbers

  • 12,068,034 COVID-19 cases worldwide; 550,159 deaths; 6,611,524 recovered.[1]
  • The United States has the highest number of COVID-19 cases at 3,055,144 cases. Brazil has the second highest number of cases with 1,713,160 cases, India third with 767,296, and Russia fourth with 706,179.

Epidemic curve of confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide by region (from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control COVID-19 Situation Update, as of 7/6/2020).

Distribution of coronavirus deaths worldwide by region (from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control COVID-19 Situation Update, as of 7/6/2020).[2]

US National case numbers

  • 3,055,144 cases of coronavirus confirmed by lab tests, 132,309 deaths, and 953,420 recovered cases. 37,431,666 total tests have been conducted.[3]
  • New York continues to have the highest number of confirmed cumulative cases at 398,929, but transmission of COVID-19 is now occurring at a slower rate in the northeastern US compared to other parts of the country. 
  • California has seen a significant increase in cases and now has the second highest number of cumulative cases by state at 292,773 confirmed cases. Other states that have seen a significant increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in June include Texas, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. 

Risk in population

Deaths involving COVID-19 reported to National Center for Health Statistics as of July 1, 2020[4]
Age group Total number of deathsPercentage of reported deaths
0-241710.15%
25-442,7422.44%
45-545,4884.89%
55-6413,46512.00%
65-7423,33320.79%
75+67,02759.73%
Provisional Death Counts for COVID-19 by Demographic Characteristics as of July 1, 2020[5]
Population Total
Female46.55%
Male53.45%
White42.10%
Black17.10%
American Indian or Alaskan Native0.30%
Asian10.60%
Hispanic27.90%
Other1.90%

Known cases in Connecticut (call 211 or text “CTCOVID” to 898211 for information)

  • As of July 6, 2020 there are 46,976 (+259 from July 3) confirmed and probable cases, 69 (-26 from July 3) hospitalizations, and 4,338 deaths. 522,385 patients have been tested in the state.[6]
  • Confirmed and probable cases:
    • Fairfield County: 16,823 cases, 1,377 deaths
    • Hartford County: 11,794 cases, 1,380 deaths
    • Litchfield County: 1,504 cases, 137 deaths
    • Middlesex County: 1,321 cases, 186 deaths
    • New Haven County: 12,462 cases, 1,078 deaths
    • New London County: 1,296 cases, 102 deaths
    • Tolland County: 925 cases, 64 deaths
    • Windham County: 624 cases, 14 deaths
    • Pending address validation: 273 cases, 0 deaths

Increases in Cases and Deaths in CT with Percent Increase from Previous Reporting Period

CountyJuly 6June 22June 8June 1May 25
Fairfield
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

16,823 (2.1)
1,377
(1.2)

16,475 (2.6)
1,361
(3.7)

16,056 (3.3)
1,312
(2.7)

15,549 (2.9)
1,277
(5.1)

15,114 (6.1)
1,215
(6.0)
Hartford
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

11,794 (3.4)
1,380
(2.2)

11,405 (5.5)
1,350
(4.9)

10,809 (5.0)
1,287
(3.0)

10,296 (6.3)
1,250
(6.4)

9,686 (11.0)
1,175
(10.0)
Litchfield
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

1,504
(2.5)
137
(1.4)

1,467
(3.4)
135
(1.0)

1,419
(1.6)
134
(0.8)

1,397
(5.0)
133
(9.9)

1,331
(4.9)
121
(4.3)
Middlesex
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

1,321
(5.0)
186
(7.0)

1,259
(6.2)
174
(9.4)

1,185
(7.3)
159
(4.6)

1,104
(9.3)
152
(11.8)

1,010
(11.1)
136
(8.8)
New Haven Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

12,462
(2.3)
1,078
(1.6)

12,185
(3.0)
1,061
(5.0)

11,828
(4.5)
1,010
(3.9)

11,323
(3.8)
972
(7.6)

10,905
(7.3)
903
(10.5)
New London Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

1,296
(6.5)
102
(1.0)

1,217
(8.8)
101
(6.3)

1,119
(3.8)
95
(6.7)

1,078
(3.1)
89
(20.3)

1,046
(20.0)
74
(12.1)
Tolland
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

925
(3.4)
64
(0.0)

895
(3.6)
64
(6.7)

864
(3.3)
60
(5.3)

836
(3.6)
57
(3.6)

807
(12.9)
55
(2.0)
Windham
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

624
(7.8)
14
(0.0)

579
(37.9)
14
(0.0)

420
(9.4)
14
(0.0)

384
(7.0)
14
(0.0)

359
(14.7)
14
(0.0)

Connecticut Cumulative Statistics by Month for Age, Nursing Home/Assisted Living, and Race/Ethnicity per 100,000 

Age, total (deaths)Nursing home/assisted living, total (deaths)*Race/ethnicity rate per 100,000 population (deaths)
(end of month) Cases, (Deaths)<2020-4950-69>70WhiteBlackHispanic Other
Mar.3,128 (69)94 (0)1,419 (3)1,150 (25)461 (60)85 (11)NANANANA
Apr.27,700 (2,257)775 (2)10,820 (52)9,299 (391)6,572 (1,808)1,713 (375)365 (67)829 (89)723 (34)211 (11)
May42,743 (3,970)1,617 (2)16,792 (75)13,547 (655)10,660 (3,237)8,322 (1,884)584 (116)1,365 (146)1,248 (56)755 (42)
June46,572 (4,324)2,024 (2)18,805 (81) 14,380 (708)11,304 (3,533)8,672 (2,163)677 (132)1,577 (166)1,493 (63)860 (47)
July to current 46,976 (4,338)2,068 (2)19,010 (81)14,472 (709)11,368 (3,546)No data685 (132)1,587 (166)1,507 (64)852 (47)

*Data on nursing homes is sparingly updated   

  • As of July 2, 2020, Yale New Haven Health has 20 hospitalized patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis (a decrease of 14 from June 19). The number of in-patients has been steadily decreasing over the past month. 15 patients are in the ICU (down 5 from June 19) and another 6 patients are on ventilators (down 6 from June 19). 
  • Testing of Yale Health healthcare workers continues, and to date 12,249 workers have been tested across 5 Yale New Haven Health hospitals. These tests have found 17 were positive for COVID-19 but were asymptomatic and another 13 were positive and symptomatic.

COVID-19 projections for reopening Connecticut

  • Professor Forrest Crawford, Dr. Zehang Richard Li, and Dr. Olga Morozova at Yale created models for infection, hospitalization, and death depending on the amount of interpersonal contact following reopening. As businesses in Connecticut reopen, a “slow” reopening would continue measures such as school closures, use of face coverings in public, social distancing, and remaining at home except when necessary, whereas a “fast” reopening would follow few, if any, of those guidelines. Critically, should a “fast” reopening occur, Connecticut will see a surge of hospitalizations and deaths by August. It is unknown exactly what type of reopening will occur but it is likely to fall between a slow and fast reopening.[7]
Average by September 2020“Slow” reopening scenario“Fast” reopening scenario
Monthly new infections2,624 on average(range: 471 – 7,199)58,991 on average(range: 30,145 – 84,043)
Hospitalizations273 on average (range: 59 – 722)5,023 on average (range: 1,272 – 11,426)
Cumulative deaths5,415 on average(range: 4,413 – 6,788)7,769 on average(range: 5,171 – 12,037)

Connecticut developments

  • Despite the ongoing good news confirming a low rate of infections, Governor Lamont has delayed Phase 3 reopening. The rapid rise in cases in states that quickly reopened has only demonstrated the need for increased caution in proceeding with reopening plans.
  • Connecticut currently allows 25-person indoor gatherings and 100-person outdoor gatherings. Bars will remain closed and indoor dining and gyms will be limited to 50% capacity. Large entertainment venues will also be limited to 25% capacity.[8] The Governor is also requiring travelers from 19 states with a high positive rate to self-quarantine.[9]
  • Connecticut currently has the lowest rate of COVID-19 transmission in the nation.[10] Of the 3,700 coronavirus tests conducted on Sunday, June 21, only 1% came back positive.[11] The same proportion was reported on July 7.

Known cases in Rhode Island (call 401-222-8022 for information)

  • As of July 6, 2020[12]
    • 17,154 confirmed cumulative cases (+695 from 6/21/20)
    • 260,690 total tests conducted (+42,022 from 6/21/20)
    • 55 patients currently hospitalized (-51 from 6/21/20)
    • 4 patients currently in ICU (-14 from 6/21/20)
    • 969 deaths in the state (+66 from 6/21/20)

Rhode Island developments[13]

  • As of June 30, Phase 3 reopening restrictions are in place in Rhode Island. Social gatherings, such as weddings, parties, and other events are allowed to have up to 50 people in outdoor settings and 25 people in indoor settings, with some allowances for catered gatherings. Public events in indoor settings are capped at 125 people and outdoor settings are capped at 250, but social distancing measures must be maintained for both. Retail businesses, restaurants, museums, houses of worship, outdoor recreation areas, and office-based businesses can reopen.[14]
  • The state moratorium on evictions ended on July 1, meaning that many Rhode Islanders that lost their source of income due to COVID-19 and have had difficulty paying their rent may now face eviction.[15]
  • Rhode Island is the first state in the nation to have tested 20% of its total population.[16]

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