Case Surveillance Update | 2020.07.26

Trends in short

  • The number of average daily cases in both Connecticut and Rhode Island have increased since two weeks ago. Connecticut is now seeing an average of 87 new COVID-19 cases each day (up from 59) and Rhode Island is seeing an average of 69 new cases each day (up from 47).[1]
  • COVID-19 cases in the US continue to rise, which has led to some states delaying their reopenings and others to close again and issue mandatory mask orders.
  • Despite a decrease in cases in Connecticut, public health officials are proceeding with extreme caution and have delayed Phase 3 of reopening (more details appear later in the report). 

International case numbers

  • 16,100,905 COVID-19 cases worldwide; 645,482 deaths; 9,289,876 recovered.[2]
  • The United States has the highest number of COVID-19 cases at 4,197,184 cases. Brazil has the second highest number of cases with 2,394,513 cases, India third with 1,385,685, and Russia fourth with 811,073.
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Epidemic curve of confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide by region (from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control COVID-19 Situation Update, as of 7/26/2020).

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Distribution of coronavirus deaths worldwide by region (from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control COVID-19 Situation Update, as of 7/26/2020).[3]


US National case numbers

  • 4,197,184 cases of coronavirus confirmed by lab tests, 146,632 deaths, and 1,279,414 recovered cases. 50,635,683 total tests have been conducted.[4]
  • California now has the highest number of cumulative cases at 448,264 and Florida is second at 423,855 cumulative cases. Transmission of COVID-19 is now occurring at a slower rate in the northeastern US, which was initially hit hard, than in other parts of the country.

Risk in population

Deaths involving COVID-19 reported to National Center for Health Statistics as of July 15, 2020[5]
Age group Total number of deathsPercentage of reported deaths
0-241880.15%
25-443,0132.48%
45-546,0214.96%
55-6414,69312.11%
65-7425,26820.82%
75+72,19159.48%
Provisional Death Counts for COVID-19 by Demographic Characteristics as of July 15, 2020[6]
Population Total
Female46.54%
Male53.46%
White42.00%
Black26.90%
American Indian or Alaskan Native0.30%
Asian10.60%
Hispanic28.20%
Other1.90%

Known cases in Connecticut (call 211 or text “CTCOVID” to 898211 for information)

  • As of July 24, 2020 there are 48,776 confirmed and probable cases (+544 from July 22), 71 hospitalizations (-1 from July 22), and 4,413 deaths. 711,102 patients have been tested in the state.[7]
  • Confirmed and probable cases:
    • Fairfield County: 17,421 cases, 1,402 deaths
    • Hartford County: 12,340 cases, 1,408 deaths
    • Litchfield County: 1,560 cases, 138 deaths
    • Middlesex County: 1,365 cases, 188 deaths
    • New Haven County: 12,884 cases, 1,095 deaths
    • New London County: 1,362 cases, 102 deaths
    • Tolland County: 964 cases, 65 deaths
    • Windham County: 658 cases, 15 deaths
    • Pending address validation: 222 cases, 0 deaths

Increases in Cases and Deaths in CT with Percent Increase from Previous Reporting Period

CountyJuly 16July 6June 22June 8June 1
Fairfield
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

17,069
(1.5)
1,395
(1.3)

16,823 (2.1)
1,377 (1.2)

16,475 (2.6)
1,361 (3.7)

16,056 (3.3)
1,312 (2.7)

15,549 (2.9)
1,277 (5.1)
Hartford
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths (% increase)

12,046 (2.10) 
1,403
(1.7)

11,794 (3.4)
1,380 (2.2)

11,405 (5.5)
1,350 (4.9)

10,809 (5.0)
1,287 (3.0)

10,296 (6.3)
1,250 (6.4)
Litchfield
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

1,523
(1.3)
138
(1.0)

1,504 (2.5)
137
(1.4)

1,467 (3.4)
135
(1.0)

1,419 (1.6)
134
(0.8)

1,397 (5.0)
133
(9.9)
Middlesex
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

1,357
(2.7)
189
(1.6)

1,321 (5.0)
186
(7.0)

1,259 (6.2)
174
(9.4)

1,185 (7.3)
159
(4.6)

1,104 (9.3)
152 (11.8)
New Haven
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

12,733 (2.2)
1,090 (1.10)

12,462 (2.3)
1,078 (1.6)

12,185 (3.0)
1,061 (5.0)

11,828 (4.5)
1,010 (3.9)

11,323 (3.8)
972
(7.6)
New London
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

1,347
(4.0)
102
(0.0)

1,296 (6.5)
102
(1.0)

1,217 (8.8)
101
(6.3)

1,119 (3.8)
95
(6.7)

1,078 (3.1)
89
(20.3)
Tolland
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

939
(1.5)
65
(1.6)

925
(3.4)
64
(0.0)

895
(3.6)
64
(6.7)

864
(3.3)
60
(5.3)

836
(3.6)
57
(3.6)
Windham
Cases
(% increase)
Deaths
(% increase)

651
(4.3)
14
(0.0)

624
(7.8)
14
(0.0)

579 (37.9)
14
(0.0)

420
(9.4)
14
(0.0)

384
(7.0)
14
(0.0)

Connecticut Cumulative Statistics by Month for Age, Nursing Home/Assisted Living, and Race/Ethnicity per 100,000 

Age, total (deaths)Nursing home/assisted living, total (deaths)*Race/ethnicity rate per 100,000 population (deaths)
(end of month) Cases, (Deaths)<2020-4950-69>70WhiteBlackHispanic Other
Mar.3,128 (69)94 (0)1,419 (3)1,150 (25)461 (60)85 (11)NANANANA
Apr.27,700 (2,257)775 (2)10,820 (52)9,299 (391)6,572 (1,808)1,713 (375)365 (67)829 (89)723 (34)211 (11)
May42,743 (3,970)1,617 (2)16,792 (75)13,547 (655)10,660 (3,237)8,322 (1,884)584 (116)1,365 (146)1,248 (56)755 (42)
June46,572 (4,324)2,024 (2)18,805 (81) 14,380 (708)11,304 (3,533)8,672 (2,163)677 (132)1,577 (166)1,493 (63)860 (47)
July to current 46,976 (4,338)2,068 (2)19,010 (81)14,472 (709)11,368 (3,546)No data685 (132)1,587 (166)1,507 (64)852 (47)

*Data on nursing homes is sparingly updated   

  • As of July 24, 2020, Yale New Haven Health has 13 hospitalized patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis (-3 from July 17). The number of in-patients has been steadily decreasing over the past month. 4 patients are in the ICU (+2 from July 17) and one patient is on a ventilator. Bridgeport Hospital currently has 9 COVID-19 patients and Lawrence and Memorial in New London has no COVID-19 patients.  
  • Testing of Yale Health healthcare workers continues, and to date 12,249 workers have been tested across 5 Yale New Haven Health hospitals. These tests have found 17 were positive for COVID-19 but were asymptomatic and another 13 were positive and symptomatic.

COVID-19 projections for reopening Connecticut

  • Professor Forrest Crawford, Dr. Zehang Richard Li, and Dr. Olga Morozova at Yale created models for infection, hospitalization, and death depending on the amount of interpersonal contact following reopening. As businesses in Connecticut reopen, a “slow” reopening would continue measures such as school closures, use of face coverings in public, social distancing, and remaining at home except when necessary, whereas a “fast” reopening would follow few, if any, of those guidelines. Critically, should a “fast” reopening occur, Connecticut will see a surge of hospitalizations and deaths by August.[8]
Average by September 2020“Slow” reopening scenario“Fast” reopening scenario
Monthly new infections2,624 on average(range: 471 – 7,199)58,991 on average(range: 30,145 – 84,043)
Hospitalizations273 on average (range: 59 – 722)5,023 on average (range: 1,272 – 11,426)
Cumulative deaths5,415 on average(range: 4,413 – 6,788)7,769 on average(range: 5,171 – 12,037)

Connecticut developments

  • Despite maintaining one of the lowest rates of transmission in the country, Governor Lamont continues to urge caution and has delayed Phase 3 reopening indefinitely (originally planned July 6th). The rapid rise in cases in states that quickly reopened has only demonstrated the need for increased caution in proceeding with reopening plans.[9]
  • Connecticut currently allows 25-person indoor gatherings and 100-person outdoor gatherings. Bars will remain closed and indoor dining and gyms will be limited to 50% capacity. Large entertainment venues will also be limited to 25% capacity.[10] The Governor is also requiring travelers from 22 states with a high positive rate to self-quarantine.[11]
  • Connecticut currently has the lowest rate of COVID-19 transmission in the nation.[12] Of the 3,700 coronavirus tests conducted on Sunday, June 21, only 1% came back positive. The same proportion was reported on July 7.[13]

Known cases in Rhode Island (call 401-222-8022 for information)

  • As of July 24, 2020[14]
    • 18,224 confirmed cumulative cases (+1,070 from 7/6/20)
    • 329,556 total tests conducted (+68,866 from 7/6/20)
    • 66 patients currently hospitalized (+13 from 7/6/20)
    • 6 patients currently in ICU (+2 from 7/6/20)
    • 1,002 deaths in the state (+33 from 7/6/20)

Rhode Island developments

  • As of June 30, Phase 3 reopening restrictions are in place in Rhode Island.[15] Social gatherings, such as weddings, parties, and other events are allowed to have up to 50 people in outdoor settings and 25 people in indoor settings, with some allowances for catered gatherings. Public events in indoor settings are capped at 125 people and outdoor settings are capped at 250, but social distancing measures must be maintained for both. Retail businesses, restaurants, museums, houses of worship, outdoor recreation areas, and office-based businesses can reopen.[16]
  • The state moratorium on evictions ended on July 1, meaning that many Rhode Islanders who lost their source of income due to COVID-19 and have had difficulty paying their rent may now face eviction.[17]
  • Rhode Island was the first state in the nation to have tested 20% of its total population.[18]

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